[HCDX] Yawn Only an X11+ Flare This Time

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

  Relax everyone it was just a measly X11+ solar flare this time from
Sunspot Group #10486 located at S17E04 with a complex and twisted
gamma-delta magnetic signature, which is geo-effective (Earth Facing). This
solar flare was of a shorter duration then the X17+ solar flare of
yesterday, with a lesser elevated energetic proton level >10 MeV (10+o). It
did produce another daylight side radio blackout and also released another
large full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), but is a slower mover then the
last one and should impact the Earth's magnetic field beginning sometime on
UTC 03/10/31.

  You can see more information on this latest solar flare event at:
http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/last_events/gev_20031029_1959.html

  In recent hours the Boulder K index has dropped back to a 7, which is a
strong geomagnetic storm, down from an 8 (severe) to a 9 (extreme) earlier
in the day. For a good part of the day high, mid and even low latitude
propagation paths were poor to very poor.

  It's a no brainer that nighttime LF and MF as well as day and night time
HF propagation conditions will continue very poor but slowly improving to
poor during the next 48 hours. After that the CME from the X11+ solar flare
should return conditions to strong to severe geomagnetic storming.

  I've personally been keeping a keen eye northward here in Central Florida
at 28 deg. N latitude for visible Aurora. I've seen nothing so far this time
but visible Aurora was observed in Houston, TX and Tallahassee, FL early
this morning. In 2001 and 1989 I did observe visible Aurora at this latitude
in the Tampa bay area.

  As I mentioned earlier today, in association with the X17+ solar flare of
yesterday the K index reached a 9 and the A index 400, both at the top of
their respective scales and representative of a severe geomagnetic storm at
mid latitudes. The elevated energetic proton level >10 MeV (10+o) went off
scale at 10,000+.

  Yesterday's X17+ was historic in that it was the second largest solar
flare of cycle 23 and third largest since 1859. Also the massive associated
CME arrived at Earth in only approximately 19 hours, also fastest since
1859. The elevated energetic proton level was the second highest during
solar cycle 23.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA
EL87WX

Yaesu FT-840 Digital Modes E-List:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/yaesu_ft840

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive
Plus Daily HF.MF Radio Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm


---[Start Commercial]---------------------

World Radio TV Handbook 2004 is coming out! Preorder yours now! Only $20.97 through us.

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/0823059685/hardcoredxcom

---[End Commercial]-----------------------
________________________________________
Hard-Core-DX mailing list
Hard-Core-DX@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
http://dallas.hard-core-dx.com/mailman/listinfo/hard-core-dx
http://www.hard-core-dx.com/
_______________________________________________

THE INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE IS FREE. It may be copied, distributed
and/or modified under the conditions set down in the Design Science License
published by Michael Stutz at http://dsl.org/copyleft/dsl.txt