[HCDX] MF/HF Radio Blackout

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

  As I surmised might happen today, a radio blackout began just a few minutes ago at approximately 1745 UTC impacting the daylight side of our planet. Here in Plant City, FL, USA at 1800 UTC the blackout is total and complete up to approximately 30,000 kc.
  
  The tentative culprit is a large approximate M8 solar flare. It may have also produced another CME also.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA 
EL87WX

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

----- Original Message ----- 
From: Thomas Giella KN4LF 
To: a ABDX E-List ; a Cumbre DX E-List ; a HCDX E-List ; a PSK31 es E-List ; a Yaesu FT-840 E-List ; a HCDX Prop Channel ; a RSGB PSC E-List 
Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2003 9:51 AM
Subject: X 1.3 Solar Flare This Morning


  The latest partially geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) collided with Earth's magnetic field beginning at 0749 UTC this morning 03/10/26. It was associated with a large M7.6 class solar flare from Sunspot Group #10486 that occurred on 03/10/24. However as the Bz component of the magnetic field stayed positive little negative impact on Earth's magnetic field occurred. 
  
  I had predicted at least another moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storm with this latest CME but was wrong. Actually 30 of the last 36 hours has seen the Kp index at a 3 (Unsettled) or less. The previous partially geo-effective CME produced a peak Kp index of 7 (Strong) geomagnetic storming and an Ap index of 107 (Severe) geomagnetic storming. It shows just how difficult the impact on Earth's magnetic field that a "partially geo-effective" CME's can be to forecast. 

  Tomas Hood NW7US CQ magazine propagation expert forecasted this CME impact correctly. With the 36 period of no geomagnetic storming in conjunction with a solar flux reading of 222, the HF bands were wide open yesterday. I personally worked allot of 10 meter AM DX from Europe around 29000 KC, plus allot of PSK31 DX on 20,15 and 10 meters. 

  For the remainder of the weekend HF propagation conditions should be good in equatorial and mid latitudes with poor to fair on high latitude propagation paths, not taking into consideration any radio blackouts on the daylight side of the Earth that still may occur with future solar flares. MF and LF propagation conditions will stay poor, as these bands take much longer to recover after the end of geomagnetic storming and elevated energetic proton events >(10o) 10 MeV.
  
  This latest grouping of solar space and geomagnetic occurrences has been amazing. Between 03/10/18 and today we have seen 65 C class, 26 M class and 4 X class solar flares, plus 3 filament eruptions. Amazing after such a long quiet period on the downward slide of sunspot cycle 23. 

  Now more bad news. A large filament eruption that occurred beginning at 0106 UTC this morning in association with geo-effective Sunspot Group # 10484, produced a geo-effective (squarely Earth directed) Coronal Mass Ejection and will impact Earth's magnetic field beginning sometime on UTC 03/10/28.
  
  Also another huge X1.3 class solar flare occurred beginning at 0500 UTC this morning, in association with Sunspot Group #10486. It also produced a geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejection that will impact Earth's magnetic field sometime on UTC 03/10/27. This solar flare also caused a strong MF/HF radio blackout in Asia, Australia and the Middle East.

  Beginning on UTC 03/10/27 we can expect major geomagnetic storming Kp-8, with the possibility of severe storming Kp-9. Mid latitude visible Aurora is also probable as the Bz turns southward. More dayside radio blackouts are expected, as well as another stronger elevated energetic proton event >(10o) 10 MeV will also occur.

73,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA 
EL87WX

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

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