[HCDX] KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-03

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

KN4LF Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-03
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm 

Date Format is YY/MM/DD 

Published 1400 UTC 03/08/24 


PAST 24 HOUR SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES- 


Coronal Hole #052 has been in a geo-effective (Earth facing) position since 03/08/21. It's high speed solar wind stream is the source of our ongoing geo-magnetic storm but it's influence continues to weaken and should end on 03/08/25. 

After a seemingly endless parade of geo-effective Coronal Holes in recent months, which is a normal occurrence on the down side of a solar cycle, Coronal Hole #053 located in the Sun's southern hemisphere may not become geo-effective (Earth facing). 

If this verifies and we do not experience any unexpected geo-effective solar flares and attendant Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) or Elevated Energetic Proton Flux events of >10 MeV (10+o), we should see some improvement in propagation conditions in the short term. 

The Ap index has been at severe geomagnetic storm levels, with a peak at 107. 

A previous 24 hour Ap index under 10 is good, under 7 for 72 hours consecutively is best for good high and latitude MF propagation conditions. 

The Kp index has been at strong geomagnetic levels, with a peak at 7. 

A previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 is good for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high latitude paths, 0-1 for 72 hours consecutively is best. 


GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- 

Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good
High Latitude-Fair Becoming Good 


GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED- 

Expect fair then becoming good "Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. 

Expect poor then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. 

Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Northern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. 


Expect fair then becoming good "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths. 



Expect good then becoming fair domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles+ 

Expect poor then becoming fair conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles. 


"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair. 

"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be poor then becoming fair. 


"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good. 

"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be fair then becoming good. 


"Low latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. 

"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be good. 


NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK- 

GLOBAL SATELLITE DERIVED LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
http://aviationweather.gov/gcd

During the 24 hour outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. 

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical cyclones. 

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. 


During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones. 

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning induced QRN, tied to winter season thunderstorms cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. 

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "low" lightning induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems. 

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive &
Daily HF/MF Radio Propagation Outlook http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

KN4LF HF/MF Radio Propagation Theory Notes
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources & More
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf.htm

Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm







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