[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
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[HCDX] Daily Space Weather Bulletins
Thomas KN4LF Says:
Sorry for the continued delay in restarting my 7 Day HF/MF radio propagation outlook. I want to produce it on a more timely daily basis which is a time consuming project, in order to be accurate. I have ongoing business issues that I have to take care of before I can retire for good and put my time towards the daily outlook. For those who have never seen my outlooks check some old ones out at http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm .
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:Issued: 2003 Aug 20 1253 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)
SIDC URSIGRAM 30820
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 20 Aug 2003, 1240UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 20 Aug 2003 until 22 Aug 2003)
SOLAR FLARES : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
GEOMAGNETISM : Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 118 / AP: 015
PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 029
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Aug 2003 10CM FLUX: 120 / AP: 032
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field is currently unsettled with active periods, in
response to negative excursions of the Bz component. The geomagnetic activity is
expected to increase significantly in the next 12 hours, when the Earth will
enter a high speed solar wind stream originating from a low latitude coronal
hole now reaching a geoeffective position in the western solar hemisphere. Since
yesterday, the solar activity has been very low. Only C flares are expected,
from the two largest sunspot groups, though an isolated M flare remains possible.
SOLAR INDICES FOR 19 Aug 2003
SUNSPOT INDEX : 121
10CM SOLAR FLUX : 117
AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 026
AK WINGST : 021
ESTIMATED AP : 021
NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM TYPE Catania NOAA NOTE
NONE
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Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z
to 19/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 431 produced two
M-class flares, an M2/1n at 19/0759 UTC and an M2/2f at 19/1006 UTC.
The second M-flare was associated with a CME observed in LASCO
images to be directed to the southwest. Region 436 (N08E42) produced
a C5/Sf flare at 19/1826 UTC. Other disk regions were quiet. New
Region 437 (S22W27) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small M-class flares is possible in Region 431 or
436.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from major storm to quiet levels. The
CME-induced disturbance that occurred yesterday appears to have
ended. The field has been at unsettled to quiet levels since about
19/0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 48 hours. Active
conditions may start on 22 August in response to a recurrent
high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 117
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 115/110/105
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 046/086
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 015/015-015/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/50
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
73,
Thomas F. Giella
Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
C/S KN4LF
4208 Thackery Way
Plant City, FL, USA 33566
EL87WX
SWFWMD Rainfall Observer #574
NWS Tampa Bay, FL Skywarn Spotter #HIL-249
Florida Space & Atmospheric Weather Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/fsawi.htm
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