[HCDX] Fw: SIDC Belgium Space Weather Outlook

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

> :Issued: 2003 Aug 06 1252 UTC
> :Product: documentation at http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu
> DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC
(RWC-Belgium)
> SIDC URSIGRAM 30806
> SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 06 Aug 2003, 1230UT
> SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 06 Aug 2003 until 08 Aug 2003)
> SOLAR FLARES  : Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)
> GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
> SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
> PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 133 / AP: 040
> PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 024
> PREDICTIONS FOR 08 Aug 2003  10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 021
>
> COMMENT: A little earlier than expected, the Earth came under the
influence of
> the equatorial coronal hole now visible to the right of the central
meridian on
> the solar disk. Starting at about 01:00 UT today, the solar wind speed
started
> increasing again, going gradually from about 450km/s to the current value
of
> 550km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was southwards oriented most of
the
> time between 01:00 UT and 07:00, reaching down to -10nT. Active to minor
storm
> geomagnetic conditions were the consequence of this. In the mean time, the
IMF
> is mostly northwards. We expect active geomagnetic conditions over the
next 24
> hours. The coronal hole is not very extended in size, so we expect its
influence
> to wane soon. Catania sunspot group 90 (NOAA 0424) produced a
short-duration
> M1.7 flare yesterday, peaking at 12:49. The group remains the most likely
source
> of flares. C-flares are very likely from this group, while the chance for
an
> M-flare remains. Also groups 83 and 88 (NOAA 0421 and 0425) remain capable
of
> producing C-flares.
>
> SOLAR INDICES FOR 5 Aug 2003
> SUNSPOT INDEX       : 134
> 10CM SOLAR FLUX     : 131
> AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 015
> AK WINGST           : 010
> ESTIMATED AP        : 010
>
> NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
> DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC   XRAY OP 10CM     TYPE          Catania NOAA NOTE
> 05  1243 1249 1251 S16E33 M1.7 SN    40 II/1                  90  0424




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