[HCDX] KN4LF 7 Day MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05

["Thomas Giella KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxx>]

I can't seem to post to my regular HCDX Propagation Channel so I'm sending
it to the regular HCDX e-list.

I have dropped the propagation explanations within the
outlook and placed references and website links to the explanations. It
shortens the outlook and makes it less wieldy. Before I make the change
permanent I would appreciate some feedback. You can email me with comments
directly at kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxx .

KN4LF 7 Day MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2003-05
Published 0500 UTC 03/01/25 For 03/01/25-03/01/31.

PROPAGATION OUTLOOK-

Global HF Propagation Conditions Expected:

Low Latitude- Good
Mid Latitude- Good Becoming Fair
Hi Latitude- Fair Becoming Poor

Global MF Propagation Conditions Expected:

Expect good but becoming fair domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths and fair becoming poor on north south paths in the Northern Hemisphere
out to approximately 1050 miles.

Expect fair then becoming poor domestic propagation conditions on east-west
paths and poor on north south paths in the Southern Hemisphere out to
approximately 1050 miles.


"High latitude" northern hemispheric (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000
miles should be fair but becoming poor.

"High latitude" southern hemispheric (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000
miles should be fair but becoming poor.


"Mid latitude" northern hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000
miles should be good but becoming fair.

"Mid latitude" southern hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000
miles should be good but becoming fair.


"Low latitude" northern hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000 miles should be good.

"Low latitude" southern hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TP) Trans Pacific
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3000 miles should be good.


QRN OUTLOOK-

The moderate level El Nino ocean water temperature anomaly has temporarily
weakened allowing for less QRN.

During the outlook period there will be "moderate to high" lightning induced
QRN levels in low latitude areas of the northern hemisphere due to proximity
of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "low to occasionally
moderate" lightning induced QRN tied to cold season thunderstorms,
cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.

Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "very low" lightning
induced QRN tied to cold season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.


During the outlook period there will be "high" lightning induced QRN levels
in low latitude areas of the southern hemisphere tied to warm season
thunderstorms and tropical systems.

Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "moderate to high"
lightning induced QRN, tied to warm season thunderstorms and tropical
systems.

Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "moderate" lightning
induced QRN, tied to warm season thunderstorms and tropical systems.


Here are some general guidelines concerning correlation of space weather and
propagation indices to actual expected HF/MF propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) Solar flux under 150 okay, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer
multi hop.

2a.) For high frequencies (HF) solar flux of 100 is okay, 150 better, above
200 best.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.

5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and
no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C2 for several days consecutively
for 160/120 meters and less then C1 for MF broadcast band.

8.) No current STRATWARM alert.

9.) IMF Bz with a negative sign, indicates a better chance of high latitude
path auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF
signals, when the Kp is above 3.


OBSERVED SPACE WEATHER INDICES DURING THE PAST 7 DAY PERIOD.
SPACE WEATHER INDICES EXPECTED DURING THE 7 DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD
EXPLANATIONS OF THEIR IMPACT ON ANTICIPATED PROPAGATION CONDITIONS.


ELEVATED ENERGETIC PROTON FLUX-

During the previous 7 day period no elevated energetic proton flux events of
>10 MeV (10+0) occurred.

During the 7 day outlook period the probability of an elevated energetic
proton flux event >10 MeV (10+0) is placed at 30%.

For an explanation of the impact that Elevated Energetic Proton Flux events
have on propagation conditions go to:
definition #1e.) MF Propagation Overview,
definition #4.) Correlation Of Energetic Protons, Solar Flux and Ap & Kp
With MW Frerquencies,
definition #11.) Polar Cap Absorption (PCA)
at Click Here.


SOLAR FLUX-

During the previous 7 day period the daily solar flux level ranged between
142 and 128.

During the outlook period the daily solar flux values should range between
approximately 150 and 120.

During the previous 7 day period the daily "average" Background X-Ray Flux
level ranged between B3.4 and B5.4.

For an explanation of the impact that the Solar Flux and Background X-Ray
Flux have on propagation conditions go to:
definition #1c,d,f.) MF Propagation Overview,
definition #4.) Correlation Of Energetic Protons, Solar Flux and Ap & Kp
With MW Frequencies,
definition #5.) E Valley-F Layer Propagation Ducting Mechanism/Chordal Hop
Propagation
definition #13.) Solar Flares,
at Click Here .


SOLAR FLARES & SUNSPOT GROUP REGIONS-

During the previous 7 day period six M class solar flares occurred. The
largest was an M2.4 class solar flare that occured on 03/01/23 between
1234-1254 UTC and was released from #10266.

Sunspot group #10266 located at S22E12 and #10268 located at N13W03 contain
beta-gamma magnetic structures that harbor energy large M class solar
flares.

Solar flare forecast during the outlook period.
C- 100%
M- 60%
X- 20%


For an explanation of the impact that the Solar Flares have on propagation
conditions go to:
definition #12.) Short Wave Fadeout (SWF),
definition #13.) Solar Flares,
at Click Here.


CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS/IONOSPHERIC STORMS/RADIO AURORA-

During the previous 7 day period no obvious geo-effective (Earth facing)
Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) occurred. However a solar filament stretching
from the center of the Sun's visible disk and into the southeast quadrant
was observed erupting beginning at about 2124 UTC on 03/01/24. If this solar
filament eruption was associated with a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), the CME
will most likely be geoeffective.

During the outlook period the probability of a geo-effective (Earth facing)
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is placed at 30%.

During the previous 7 day period a large recurring Coronal Hole was in a
geo-effective (Earth facing) position between 03/01/16-23. It's related
Solar Wind Stream impacted the (IMF) with a peak Kp of 5 (Minor Storm) on
03/01/20 & 23, with an extended period of time with a Kp of 4 (Active), then
with a Kp index of 3 (Unsettled) for the rest of the period.

During the outlook period two smaller Coronal Hole will rotate into
geo-effective (Earth facing) position on 03/01/27-28 and 03/01/30 with their
related Solar Wind Streams impacted the (IMF).

The following related geomagnetic conditions will occur:

During the outlook period the probability of unsettled (Kp-3) geomagnetic
conditions is placed at 100%.

During the outlook period the probability of active (Kp-4) geomagnetic
conditions is placed at 100%.

During the outlook period the probability of at least a minor ionospheric
storm (Kp-5)(G1) is placed at 60%.

During the outlook period the probability of at least a moderate ionospheric
storm (Kp-6)(G2) is placed at 20%.

During the outlook period the probability of at least a strong ionospheric
storm (Kp-7+)(G3+) is placed at 10%.

G5 = Extreme - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3

During the outlook period the probability of a visible Aurora display is
placed at:

High Latitude- 100%
Mid Latitude- 40%.

The Aurora Index at 0017 UTC 03/01/25 is a 7.

The NOAA POES historical database that was used to construct statistical
patterns of auroral power flux for each of the 10 levels of auroral activity
as defined by total power dissipation as illustrated in the following table.

Total Power Dissipation in Gigawatts/Activity Index Kp Index/Aurora Index

04-06/3/1+
10-16/5/2+
24-39/7/3+
61-96/9/5-


At 0206 UTC On 03/01/25 the Bz was 3.4 nt north.

The Wang-Sheeley Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Model which predicts
the Sun's IMF polarity, forecasts a negative (+) polarity between
03/01/25-03/01/31.


For an explanation of the impact that Coronal Mass Ejections (CME),
Ionospheric Storms and Radio Aurora have on propagation conditions go to:
definition #2.) Auroral Oval Blockage, Absorption And Refraction,
definition #3.) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME),
definition #8.) Ionospheric/Geomagnetic Storms,
at Click Here.


STRATOSPHERIC WARMING-

During the past 7 day outlook period no Stratospheric Warming occurred.

During the outlook period increased winter like day and year round night
time D layer absorption of medium frequency signals, tied to Stratospheric
Warming in the northern hemisphere is "possible".


For an explanation of the impact that Stratospheric Warming (STRATWARM) has
on propagation conditions go to:
definition #9.) Meteorological Effects On HF/MF Propagation,
definition #16.) Stratospheric Warming,
at Click Here.


73, Thomas Giella, KN4LF
Plant City, FL, USA

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather Geomagnetic Data Plus MF Propagation
Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources And More:
http://www.kn4lf.com

FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm

FMCI 2002 Florida Daily Weather Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm









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