[HCDX] 160 Meter/MF Propagation Indices

["Thomas Giella, KN4LF" <kn4lf@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

I posted this earlier this morning on the 160 Topband Reflector, with a few
typo's.
I'm reposting it here now with corrections and some additional information
specifically
for the MF broadcast band. Also I will not be publishing #2002-31 of the
KN4LF 7
Day Medium Frequency Radio Propagation Outlook until sometime on Monday.

  Due to the dismal Topband propagation conditions seen during the CQ WW
contest last weekend, I've received numerous requests for and explanation of
160 meter propagation correlation with propagation indices.
  Unfortunately MF propagation is so complicated that the usual indices are
not clear cut indicators of 160 meter propagation conditions, like with HF
frequencies. However the following indices parameter levels will
(((generally))) point to good 160 meter propagation conditions.

1.) Dropping indices numbers are better.

2.) Solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi
hop.

3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.

4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10,  under 7  for several days
consecutively is best.

5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for
high latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.

6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters
and no greater then (10-1) on MF broadcast band.

7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C2 for several days
consecutively for 160/120 meters and less then C1 for MF broadcast band.

No current STRATWARM alert.

IMF Bz with a negative sign, indicates a better chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals,
when the Kp is above 3.

See my MF radio propagation theory notes for more information
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm .

73,
Thomas Giella,
KN4LF/NNN0HUS
Plant City, FL, USA

KN4LF 160 Meter Amateur Radio Resources And More:
http://www.kn4lf.com

KN4LF Daily Solar Space Weather Geomagnetic Data Plus
MF Propagation Outlook:
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm

FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm

FMCI 2002-2003 FL Daily Winter WX Discussion:
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm




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