[HCDX] Updated Space Weather Forecast

["Andy Sennitt" <andys@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Unusually, we have a Media Network Space Weather update on a Saturday.
Conditions have changed suddenly, and this is Mike Bird's latest forecast as
published on the Radio Netherlands Web site:

Update for Saturday 11 May 2002

Report on Friday 10 May 2002

Solar activity was low and no significant flares were reported.

A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 10:29 UTC and then a little
later at 11:24 UTC a small sudden impulse of 18nT was recorded in the
geomagnetic field. Almost immediately active thresholds were reached which
lasted until 19:00 UTC. Conditions then became unsettled until around 22:00
UTC when active levels persisted again until 24:00 UTC. Very little effect
was noticed in the ionosphere and shortwave MUFs appeared to continue at
near predicted to enhanced levels.

Forecast for Saturday and Sunday 11-12 May 2002

Solar activity is expected to remain low to moderate. Sunspot region 9934
has grown in size to about five times larger than planet Earth and is
exhibiting M and possibly even X class flare potential.

At 09:24 UTC on Saturday 11 May a moderate shock in the solar wind was
observed and the interplanetary magnetic field pointed southwards by
around -10nT. Another sudden impulse to the geomagnetic field appeared
imminent and unsettled to active thresholds are expected to prevail with an
outside chance it may even reach minor storm.

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