[HCDX]: POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

[Larry Van Horn <steditor@xxxxxxxxx>]

AM DXers take note, we could have a great LA night tonight. FM/TV DXers
should be on the lookout for major aurora cx as well. HF listeners on the
milcom list and hard core looks like you folks can sleep in late (just
kidding, look south folks). ;-) Thanks to Mike H for passing this along. Now
where is my coffee cup ....  ???

Best regards all,

Larry Van Horn
Milcom and AM/FM/TV DX list owner

<<<snip>>>

Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
From: COler@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Cary Oler)
Date: Tue, Nov 4, 1997 11:26 PM PDT
Message-id: <63p3id$hri2@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>

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                     POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                        ISSUED: 04:15 UTC, 05 NOVEMBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

               (See Appended Comments for Synoptic Information)

    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  06 - 07 NOV (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  05 - 08 NOV

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR TO SEVERE

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX 48 HOURS
            DURATION OF MAIN BELT OF ACTIVITY:  APPROX 24 HOURS ON 07 NOV

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  8
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  9

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 TO 6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  STRONG MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  VERY HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  POOR TO USELESS

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  VERY HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO FREQ. USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  60% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
A series of coronal mass ejections.  The last one observed on 04 November
that was associated with the major X-class proton flare is expected to
produce a major to severe geomagnetic storm on 07 November.

---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 25 %                 LOW LATITUDES : STRONG MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 40 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
        MINOR STORM : 30 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 05 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90%        ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 55 TO 70
                   ----           ---------------

COMMENTS:

     Activity is expected to begin primarily on 06 November with the arrival
of one of the coronal mass ejections related to one of the stronger minor
M-class flares observed.  This activity could result in periods of minor to
major geomagnetic storming on 06 November.  The largest disturbance is
expected to arrive with a fairly vigorous shock-front on 07 November and
produce periods of major to severe geomagnetic storming.  Currently, the
activity on 07 November is expected to reach or exceed major storm levels.
A return to quieter levels of activity is not expected until later on 08
November, barring further solar outbursts.

     A middle latitude auroral activity warning has been issued as well as a
low latitude auroral activity watch for 06 and 07 November.  Consult the web
page at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/aurpred.html for supporting graphics
forecasts.
**  End of Warning  **



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