Re: NEW SOLAR CYCLE STATUS & CURRENT SOLAR FLARE RELATED DISTURBANCE STATUS

[paulorm@xxxxxxxx (Paul Ormandy)]

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>                                   CONTENTS

>                Current Solar Flare Related Disturbance Status
>                          New Solar Cycle 23 Status
>                  Prospects for the Future of Solar Cycle 23
>         Placing the 07 April Solar Flare Disturbance in Perspective
>                  Available Tools and Sources of Information


>CURRENT SOLAR FLARE RELATED DISTURBANCE STATUS
>----------------------------------------------

>     As of 05:30 UTC on 10 April, the well publicized solar flare related
>disturbance of 07 April has not yet arrived.  See below to place this
>disturbance into perspective.


>NEW SOLAR CYCLE 23 STATUS
>-------------------------

>     It is now becoming quite clear that we have passed old solar cycle 22
>and are ramping slowly upward toward the maximum of the present solar cycle
>23.  We have seen some reports and heard speculation regarding this matter
>that is somewhat inaccurate. Although the official word still isn't out yet,
>there is an increasingly abundant amount of evidence suggesting that we are
>now within solar cycle 23. Some of this evidence follows: Calcium plage
>emissions are slowly increasing and have been increasing for many months now;
>the background and daily average x-ray flux values are increasing - they are
>higher now than they have been since about 1995 when we were still in the
>decline of cycle 22; the occurrence of new-cycle sunspot regions is
>increasing and the frequency of old-cycle sunspot formation is decreasing.
>This latter item is usually considered the clincher.

>     Unless sunspot formation suddenly dies out for an extended period of
>time, the sunspot minimum of solar cycle 22 will almost certainly be May of
>1996, where the smoothed sunspot number fell to 8.1.


>PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE OF SOLAR CYCLE 23
>------------------------------------------

>     Solar Cycle 23 is predicted to be a larger than average solar cycle.
>Current predictions estimate the sunspot number for cycle 23 will probably
>peak near 160 (+/- 30) with a peak in the 10.7 cm solar radio flux near 205
>(+/- 30). There is some excitment that this cycle may be a record breaker.
>The current champion of sunspot cycles is solar cycle 19 which had a smoothed
>sunspot number of 201 in November of 1957.  This is not likely to occur, but
>it is a notable possibility.  The art of predicting the magnitude of sunspot
>cycles is still rooted primarily in empirical relationships.  We do not yet
>understand the physical processes involved well enough to derive successful
>quantitative models of sunspot cycles.  For this reason, there is a level of
>uncertainty that (however small) could result in a record-breaking cycle.

>     If current projections are correct, the sunspot maximum is currently
>estimated to peak in March of the year 2000.  It must be noted, however, that
>predicting the month of maximum is even less certain than the sunspot number.
>The actual month of sunspot maximum could be as early as January 1999 or as
>late as June, 2001.

>     Geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually become increasingly
>disturbed as we move toward the solar maximum of cycle 23.  The number of
>days of disturbed conditions is expected to increase from 1997 through to a
>peak near the year 2002.  Thereafter, activity should begin a gradual
>decline.  This is good news for people interested in watching auroral
>activity, but it is bad news for people reliant on ionospheric radio
>communications and satellite health.  For people reliant on ionospheric radio
>communications, there is a bitter-sweet story.  Although the frequency of
>degrading interplanetary disturbances will increase, the large increase in
>ionizing radiation from sunspot regions will provide ever-improving
>propagation conditions with bands gradually opening into the higher
>frequencies of the HF bands.  The years from 1999 through 2005 will be the
>worst in terms of geomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances.  And of those,
>the year 2001 is expected to be significantly disturbed, seconded by the year
>1999 and the year 2004.


>PLACING THE 07 APRIL SOLAR FLARE DISTURBANCE IN PERSPECTIVE
>-----------------------------------------------------------

>     A few notes and caveats regarding the solar flare and related coronal
>mass ejection of 07 April is in order, considering how well publicized this
>event is becoming.  We have seen a sufficient number of reports on TV, the
>Internet and radio to feel justified in placing this disturbance in
>perspective.  Some sources are blowing this event a fair bit out of
>proportion.

>     First, the flare itself was rated a class C6/3N event.  The C6 portion
>identifies the magnitude of the flare in soft x-rays.  The flare in x-rays
>was really not that unusual or spectacular.  It was very small compared to
>the solar flares that we will be observing over the next 3 to 6 years.  The
>last portion of the rating ("3N") defines the optical size and brilliance of
>the flare.  In this case, the flare was quite large, but of only average
>("N"ormal) brilliance.  A size 4 flare is the largest optical flare rated.

>     So the flare itself was not very spectacular in x-rays, but it was
>fairly large optically.  Since x-rays are considered the more accurate
>indicator of a flares true magnitude (and potential influence on the Earth),
>we can conclude that this flare was really rather diminuitive.

>     Over the next 3 to 6 years, we can expect to see some solar flares 100
>to 1,000 times more powerful than this one.  This should help bring the
>ordinary nature of this flare into perspective.

>     What few people realize is that solar flares themselves are NOT well
>correlated with the magnitude of interplanetary disturbances (technically
>called coronal mass ejections or CMEs).  Most solar flares don't even produce
>disturbances that escape the Sun.  In fact, a great number of CMEs are not
>associated with flares at all.  And some aren't even associated with any
>discernable changes in the appearance of the Sun.  Some researchers even
>argue that solar flares are not related to coronal mass ejections at all, but
>that they are two separate and distinct types of unrelated phenomena. The
>jury is still out on that one.  Caution must therefore be exercised in
>relating solar flares with coronal mass ejections.

>     This particular event _does_ appear to have been related to the C6/3N
>solar flare of 07 April.  The coronal mass ejection itself was larger than
>most the Solar and Heliospheric Spacecraft (SOHO) has seen, but remember that
>SOHO has not been in space long enough to see anything but the sparse and
>less active disturbances associated with solar sunspot minimum conditions.
>SOHO will undoubtably see some disturbances over the next several years that
>will blow the lid off the disturbance currently being publicized.  This
>disturbance is probably being publicized so strongly because of our new and
>very much improved ability to observe these solar events with new
>state-of-the-art spacecraft and high resolution.

>     So, placed into perspective, what has really occurred is an event that
>is not out of the ordinary or liable to produce any serious impacts on Earth.
>The most probably impact that will be observed is a rather weak shockwave
>hitting the Earth (marking the disturbances arrival) and producing a sudden
>(and small) impulse in the Earth's magnetic field, followed a few hours later
>by somewhat stronger fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field (perhaps a
>few of which may be large enough to be classified as "minor" or "major"
>fluctuations).  But these too are not out of the ordinary.  We routinely see
>(sometimes several times a month) brief periods of minor and major
>geomagnetic activity - particularly over the higher latitude regions where
>such activity is strongest.  The geomagnetic activity should coincide with
>increased levels of auroral activity - but again nothing particularly
>magnificent is expected.  We do not expect auroral activity to become visible
>from any of the lower latitudes below about 40 to 45 degrees north latitude
>(over North America).  Some locations in New Zealand and (perhaps) extreme
>southern regions of Australia may observe activity, but this too is not
>unusual. New Zealand regularly reports sightings of auroral activity - even
>during the solar minimum.  We have received sighting reports from New Zealand
>observers at least once or twice a month even during the lull of the solar
>cycle.

>     Wait until the true power-houses of solar activity start appearing on
>the Sun.  THEN you'll see how insignificant this disturbance will likely be.
>As we rise toward the solar maximum, we will begin to see some periods of
>geomagnetic and auroral activity that will dwarf this disturbance in
>comparison.  Sightings of auroral activity are usually possible from the
>southern regions of North America (and sometimes even into the tropics) at
>least once or twice each solar cycle.  Powerful displays visible throughout
>most of the continental United States, Europe, Russia, Australia and New
>Zealand will become much more common over the next 3 to 6 years, occurring
>possibly dozens of times during this new solar cycle.

>     Over the next several years, there will undoubtably be an increasing
>number of satellites that suffer anomalies and even failures.  The increased
>sensitivity of satellite components translates (in many cases) to increased
>vulnerability as well.  This should indeed be a very interesting decade of
>activity and one for which satellite owners are likely going to have to sweat
>through.


>AVAILABLE TOOLS AND SOURCES OF INFORMATION
>------------------------------------------

>     The advent of the world wide web and easy access to the Internet has
>opened up a wide assortment of possibilities for amateurs and professionals
>alike. You can now obtain current (almost realtime) images of the Sun and the
>solar corona.  A good source of information is at the WWW page for the Solar
>Data Analysis Center (SDAC) at: http://umbra.gsfc.nasa.gov

>     Current predictions and other information can be obtained from the Space
>Environment Center at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov

>     Information regarding current solar flux and geomagnetic data can also
>be found at: http://solar.uleth.ca/solar

>     For those nearer to Australia, a great deal of information is available
>from IPS Radio and Space Services in Australia at: http://www.ips.oz.au.

>     These are good starting points for finding information on the current
>state of the Sun.

>     For those with a real hunger for REALTIME information, a substantial
>software package is available for those with Windows 95 computer systems (and
>soon Windows 3.1 systems) that will haul down a huge amount of critical solar
>and geophysical information IN REALTIME over the Internet.  All you need is a
>computer that can be connected to the Internet (whether via a modem and an
>Internet Service Provider, or a direct line).  The software effectively turns
>your computer into a solar, geomagnetic, space and ionospheric "weather"
>analysis center.  The same data is used by professional solar and space
>weather forecasters.  You can observe the progress of solar flares, AS THEY
>HAPPEN, updated on-screen as frequently as you desire (up to once each
>minute).  You can study the CURRENT state of the ionosphere, obtain current
>geomagnetic readings from up to 11 magnetic observatories world-wide, set up
>to 43 audible warnings providing you with exceptional "activity trapping"
>capabilities, track the current locations, sizes and shapes of active solar
>regions and coronal holes, and much more.  We feel it is ideal for anyone who
>wants to stay on top of current conditions.  Details can be found at:
>http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html


>**  End of Bulletin  **